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The exit may have passed the stage of maximum pressure

 

        Exports in July to repair a slight increase in the export growth rate of RMB denominated. July exports grew -4.4%, compared with the June -4.9% rose 0.5 percentage points. RMB denominated exports increased by 2.9%, the recovery rate of 1.6 percentage points.

        Data and CCFI, SCFI and other high-frequency indicators are basically consistent, the two major export price index in July at an absolute price and a year on the rise of the stage.

        Devaluation can boost exports, but the magnitude of the fixed strategic constraints by the rmb. In terms of the average monthly exchange rate, the RMB against the U.S. dollar in July was 1.3%. Exchange rate for exports in the experience of a significant explanatory power, the overall appreciation of the 2010-2015Q3 to export a greater inhibition. Since the exchange rate reform started again, the yuan may be in the middle and long term slow down the trajectory, which will boost the formation of exports. But it is worth attention is that maintenance renminbi assets expected stability policy is still a established strategy and core concerns, RMB depreciation may be limited, such as the annual in less than 4% (two rounds of exchange rate fluctuations showed more than the amplitude may cause residents swap), which means that simple exchange rate factors positive impact on exports, but the relatively limited.

        Whether the United States economy as a potential growth rate indicates that the trajectory of the recovery will greatly affect the performance of China's exports. From the export of empirical models (such as Reinhart (1995)), in addition to exchange rate factors, the main trading partner of the country's      economic situation is another key decision variable. In fact, we are very easy to observe this point: China's exports and OECD leading indicators, or the United States economic indicators of the trend is more consistent. We can with America's potential growth rate as the logic of future observational evidence that America's potential growth rate is also very good agreement with the history of China's export, but in 2011-2015 China's export did not with American raise potential growth and upward, the reason is this time the U.S. economy actual performance is not satisfactory, a departure from the growth potential. From the potential growth point of view, in 2016 Q3-2020, the U.S. economy should have a period of expansion. If we think this recovery can be achieved in accordance with the probability, then China's exports should be driven.

         Low labor costs rise may be slowing: the opening rate based on observation.

         The change of population cycle and the rising of labor cost are the other important factors that affect the relative competitiveness of export. On this point, we can go to the observation from the opening rate. At the end of 2008 to the end of 2014, China's opening rate experienced a round of rapid rise, this period was accompanied by a decline in labor costs rise and export competitiveness. Data show that in 2015 started opening rate peaked after the shock down, which means that China's low labor costs rise faster may be slowing, it is conducive to repair the outlet.